The Crypto Basic and CoinTurk News EN both cite analyst Egrag Crypto's XRP October seasonality study, but report the 61.5%, 38.5%, and 85.7% figures as different kinds of measurements.
What all sources agree on
- XRP posted gains in July, August, and September 2026, marking three consecutive positive months.
- Of 13 historical Octobers reviewed, XRP closed higher in five and lower in eight.
- In 6 of 7 years where September closed green, October closed red.
- The analysis was attributed to market analyst EGRAG Crypto / Egrag Crypto.
Where the reports disagree
1What the 61.5% and 38.5% figures represent
Out of 13 Octobers, XRP recorded declines in eight, with those months posting an average decline of 61.5%. The other five Octobers ended higher, with an average increase of 38.5%.
XRP's rate of positive October closes stands at 38.5%, while negative closes account for 61.5%. The average return for the token during October was calculated at -5.5%, and the median return at -3.2%.
What would settle it: The original dataset or published analysis by Egrag Crypto showing the raw per-year October returns for XRP from 2013 to 2025.
2What the 85.7% figure measures following a green September
In six of the seven cases when XRP posted a green September, October also ended in the red, with an average loss of 85.7%.
XRP dropped in October in six out of seven years, equating to a 85.7% probability of a decline, while only once did the token record an October gain after a green September, or 14.3%.
What would settle it: The original dataset or published analysis by Egrag Crypto specifying whether 85.7% denotes frequency of decline or average magnitude of loss.
What to make of it
Treat the underlying count (5 up Octobers, 8 down Octobers, 6-of-7 declines after a green September) as established across both reports, but do not cite the 61.5%, 38.5%, or 85.7% figures as average price-return magnitudes until the original Egrag Crypto analysis is checked, since the two outlets describe them as different statistics (frequency versus magnitude).
Treat the underlying count (5 up Octobers, 8 down Octobers, 6-of-7 declines after a green September) as established across both reports, but do not cite the 61.5%, 38.5%, or 85.7% figures as average price-return magnitudes until the original Egrag Crypto analysis is checked, since the two outlets describe them as different statistics (frequency versus magnitude).