A Bitwise analyst identified as Rasmussen has argued that Circle, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, is currently mispriced by the market. The comments were reported by CoinDesk on August 10. Rasmussen’s core argument centers on a widely discussed thesis: that the total stablecoin market could expand from its current size into the trillions of dollars over the coming years.
Circle became a publicly traded company after completing its initial public offering earlier this year, giving investors a direct way to gain exposure to stablecoin issuance. The company generates revenue primarily through interest earned on reserves backing USDC, rather than through transaction fees charged to users. That business model ties Circle’s financial performance closely to both the size of USDC’s circulating supply and prevailing interest rates.
Rasmussen’s mispricing argument suggests that Circle’s current market valuation does not fully account for the scale stablecoins are projected to reach. Stablecoins have moved from a niche trading tool used mainly on crypto exchanges to a broader payments and settlement instrument. Institutions, fintech firms, and even some traditional payment networks have begun exploring stablecoin rails for cross-border transfers and treasury management.
The timing of Rasmussen’s comments follows increased regulatory clarity in the United States around stablecoin issuance. Legislative and regulatory efforts over the past year have aimed to establish clearer rules for reserve backing, redemption rights, and issuer oversight. Clearer rules of this kind are often cited by analysts as a precondition for larger institutional adoption of stablecoins, since regulated entities typically require defined legal frameworks before committing significant capital.
Circle’s stock performance since its IPO has drawn attention from both crypto-focused and traditional finance analysts. Some investors view Circle as a proxy for the broader stablecoin sector, given its position as issuer of one of the two largest dollar-pegged tokens by market capitalization. Others have questioned whether public market valuations for crypto infrastructure firms have kept pace with fundamentals, or whether they have moved ahead of them.
Rasmussen’s framing places him among a group of analysts who see a gap between near-term price action and longer-term structural growth in stablecoin usage. That view depends heavily on continued expansion of on-chain payments, tokenized asset settlement, and potential integration of stablecoins into mainstream financial infrastructure. None of those outcomes are guaranteed, and growth forecasts for the stablecoin market have varied widely across different research firms and time horizons.
The comments do not include specific price targets or timelines for when Circle’s valuation might adjust, according to the reporting. They instead reflect a broader thesis about the relationship between stablecoin market size and the valuation of companies that issue and manage them.
Sources disagree on this story
This article was published before the reports below were compared. The reporting above stands; what follows is where the published accounts do not agree.
CoinDesk and CryptoBriefing both cover Ryan Rasmussen's Circle thesis but cite different figures for the current and projected size of the stablecoin market.
What all sources agree on
- Ryan Rasmussen, Bitwise Head of Research, says investors are underestimating Circle as stablecoins expand.
- Rasmussen describes Circle as 'mispriced' by the market.
- Circle is building payments infrastructure beyond its core stablecoin/reserve business.
- The stablecoin market is expected to grow into the trillions of dollars.
Where the reports disagree
1Current size and projected future size of the stablecoin market
Rasmussen expects the stablecoin market to grow from roughly $300 billion to between $3 trillion and $5 trillion.
Bitwise expects the stablecoin market to swell to somewhere between $1.9 trillion and $2 trillion within the next several years (by 2030), with current supply described as well over $150 billion today.
What would settle it: Bitwise's original research report or public statement containing its stablecoin market size projections.
What to make of it
Treat the broad claim that Bitwise sees the stablecoin market growing into the trillions and views Circle as undervalued as established; do not cite specific dollar figures for current or projected market size until Bitwise's underlying report or statement is checked directly.
Market Impact
If Rasmussen's thesis gains traction among institutional investors, Circle's stock could attract renewed attention as a benchmark for stablecoin sector exposure. Analysts who view current stablecoin market capitalization as an early stage of a much larger trend often argue that issuer equities have not yet priced in future reserve income and adoption gains.
At the same time, any valuation reassessment would depend on factors outside Circle's direct control, including interest rate trends, competitive pressure from other stablecoin issuers, and the pace of regulatory implementation. Investors weighing this thesis should note that stablecoin market growth projections vary widely, and public equity valuations do not always track underlying market expansion in a linear fashion.
Rasmussen's comments add to an ongoing debate over how to value companies tied to stablecoin issuance as the sector continues to expand. Whether Circle's stock adjusts to reflect that growth remains an open question for markets to resolve.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is Rasmussen and what firm does he work for?
Rasmussen is an analyst at Bitwise, an asset management firm focused on cryptocurrency-related investment products, according to CoinDesk's reporting.
What does 'mispriced' mean in this context?
Rasmussen argues that Circle's current stock valuation does not fully reflect the scale of growth expected in the broader stablecoin market.
How does Circle make money from stablecoins?
Circle earns revenue mainly from interest on the reserves that back its USDC stablecoin, rather than from transaction fees paid by users.
Has Circle's valuation debate been settled?
No. The comments reflect one analyst's view, and stablecoin market growth forecasts vary across different research sources, leaving the valuation question open.